SimpleFunctions
PolymarketMay 31, 202627 days left

Will Russia enter Serhiivka by May 31?

This contract is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

8¢
$537 volume
$2K liquidity
0% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$46.2M

Best sibling

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 26¢

Ticker

0x43cf5694…76c4

Price history

8¢ current

42¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 22, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 8¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.3K
7¢46
6¢96
5¢81
4¢130
3¢3.4K
2¢23K
AskSize
8¢69
9¢80
14¢77
15¢9
16¢200
30¢20
42¢10
55¢11

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Serhiivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.311123° N, 36.931008° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

0x43cf5694…76c4

Event family

Ukraine / Russia conflict.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$46.2M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

No meeting by June 30 91¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

May 31

polymarket · 0x43cf569450f1c4259cd0426127d8356fb6296df9f09456d1d4aa3c9cd4cd76c4

8¢$537$00.1

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026

polymarket · 0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739

26¢$14.5M$49K0.0

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026

polymarket · 0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093

10¢$7.4M$21K0.1

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026

polymarket · 0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d

12¢$4.3M$24K0.1

June 30, 2026

polymarket · 0x495e6b49e7397bb4e6f8ce69e246ccb33b744678bd9bf88cbecbd3a113b05423

3¢$2.7M$48K

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026

polymarket · 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35

6¢$2.2M$132K0.0

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

polymarket · 0x8c48f3acf4177b5ceb012a8a2dc7a9c219eeae4a032d6ddcbc3c2ffab907439a

5¢$2.2M$8670.0

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026

polymarket · 0x51f624dbbf14f9edb575fef1be6f7a303751de70783fa144fce27b957452c803

16¢$2.1M$2K0.1

Eurovision Winner 2026: Ukraine

polymarket · 0x79bc9eae1f5ce8f3f58648f45e7ff7cf182a8314e2d1a5b536520c5cc4b3e097

1¢$2.1M$68K

United Russia (ER)

polymarket · 0x502a94e5c525766d5ee7f16c6568131ba1b2cbadb69c703af05a6ef00336ed64

66¢$1.9M$19K0.0

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire

polymarket · 0x9c1a953fe92c8357f1b646ba25d983aa83e90c525992db14fb726fa895cb5763

55¢$1.6M$9K0.0

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30

polymarket · 0x1a1346d763389455dac46a51e20c4cc25aecef5323f1701a440cc11d4c3f129e

3¢$1.5M$15K0.3

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027

polymarket · 0x48c2b06383f2bfe38ce3c68fc7623586b11817d061f52ecada284c82eb717f39

3¢$1.1M$00.0

Other EU country

polymarket · 0x6c85fe5b4197dc55dafef8368acaddb96adb892447730dfa53076c537b0bd9f6

0¢$968K$2K

No meeting by June 30

polymarket · 0x90c6511dcc9499c2c58786a2456df333a87c97a9cf548acc26f3e4e56fbc36e7

91¢$827K$2K0.0

Russia

polymarket · 0x9031561489f77ba1f89c0b963170a6853c39840e6e89a6a658a05d12b60a1ff0

0¢$670K$7K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

15418.9%
116.6%
Adj IY
6746%
12
LAS
0.13

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