Will Sarah Snook win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Sarah Snook win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing September 14, 2027. Sarah Snook's Emmy chances are priced at a modest 15¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($582.49 open interest), creating a highly asymmetric risk profile where YES holders face a 301.8% implied yield against just 16.6% for NO positions.
Analysis
Sarah Snook's Emmy chances are priced at a modest 15¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($582.49 open interest), creating a highly asymmetric risk profile where YES holders face a 301.8% implied yield against just 16.6% for NO positions. The 7¢ spread is substantial relative to the contract price, and with 516 days to expiry, the market has ample time for repricing as her eligibility and competing performances become clearer. The neutral regime and stable 7-day price action suggest limited recent conviction, though the 4/10 cliff risk index warrants caution given the binary nature of Emmy outcomes.
Resolution rules
If Sarah Snook has won Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SAR yes 100