Will Claire Danes win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$165
5 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
378 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Carey Mulligan win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Carey Mulligan win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Carey Mulligan
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-CARE
Cluster 2
Will Sarah Pidgeon win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Sarah Pidgeon win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Sarah Pidgeon
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SARA
Cluster 3
Will Claire Danes win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Claire Danes win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Claire Danes
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-CLA
Cluster 4
Will Sarah Snook win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Sarah Snook win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Sarah Snook
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SAR
Cluster 5
Will Sally Field win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards
Will Sally Field win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?: Sally Field
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SAL
Analysis
This represents a 17% estimated chance that Claire Danes wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony. The market pricing reflects that while Danes is a respected veteran performer, she faces competitive pressure from other nominated actresses. Her probability would increase if she secures a high-profile Emmy-eligible role or if leading competitors receive less critical acclaim for their performances. The Emmy Awards ceremony itself, scheduled for September 2026, will provide the definitive resolution. Market participants are currently pricing Sarah Snook and Carey Mulligan as stronger contenders at 34¢ and 38¢ respectively, suggesting doubts about Danes' competitive position in this particular category relative to the field.
- ›Claire Danes is priced at 7¢ compared to Sarah Snook at 34¢ and Carey Mulligan at 38¢, indicating market participants view her as a significantly weaker contender than the two frontrunners
- ›The Danes contract has the highest 24-hour trading volume at $27, suggesting more recent market activity and price discovery than other nominees
- ›No Emmy-eligible roles for Danes have been publicly announced for the 2025-2026 eligibility window as of mid-2026, which differs from competitors with confirmed projects
- ›Historical Emmy voting patterns show that critical acclaim, industry visibility, and campaign activity substantially influence outcomes in competitive supporting actress categories
- ›The September 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony date provides the hard resolution point, with nomination announcements typically occurring several weeks prior
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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