Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 14¢ spread and only 12 days to expiration, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 14¢ spread and only 12 days to expiration, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The implied yield on the "No" side reaches an astronomical 15,637.8%, indicating severe mispricing or a technical artifact from the zero price floor. With Spain's recent GDP growth consistently in the 0.6-0.8% QoQ range, a flash estimate below 0.2% would represent a dramatic economic deterioration, making the current 0% probability assessment questionable and potentially exploitable if liquidity emerges before the April 30 resolution.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.2 yes 100