Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.5%?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0% price unreliable despite the theoretical 3376.6% implied yield on a Yes position.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0% price unreliable despite the theoretical 3376.6% implied yield on a Yes position. With only 13 days until expiry and a 10¢ spread, the market appears abandoned rather than efficiently priced, suggesting traders may be waiting for the actual Q1 2026 flash estimate release before engaging. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate no recent information flow, so this pricing likely reflects minimal conviction rather than genuine market consensus that Spain's QoQ growth will fall at or below 0.5%.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.5 yes 100