Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.8%?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 92¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $10 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 92¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability. The massive 7-day rally from 24¢ to 79¢ (229% move) combined with a 15¢ spread and cliff risk index of 4 suggests significant uncertainty around the actual Q1 2026 GDP flash estimate, which typically releases in late April—just before the 4/30 close. The astronomical no-side yield of 10,319% indicates the market is pricing in near-certain yes resolution, but the thin liquidity and approaching expiry create substantial execution risk for any meaningful position.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 1.8 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T1.8 yes 100