Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3%?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3%?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with only $17 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extreme 20,259% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $17 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extreme 20,259% implied yield on the Yes side. Spain's recent economic trajectory and consensus forecasts suggest 3%+ YoY growth is plausible, yet the price has quadrupled from 3¢ to 12¢ over seven days with a wide 9¢ spread, indicating either informed positioning or thin-market distortion. With just 13 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where the pricing may not reflect true probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 3 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T3 yes 100