Will Steve Hilton finish 1st in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Steve Hilton finish 1st in the 2026 California Governor primary election?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. Steve Hilton's primary victory odds are priced at 32¢ with an exceptionally high implied yield of 197% for Yes positions, suggesting either substantial underpricing or significant tail risk that the market is pricing in.
Analysis
Steve Hilton's primary victory odds are priced at 32¢ with an exceptionally high implied yield of 197% for Yes positions, suggesting either substantial underpricing or significant tail risk that the market is pricing in. The 507% realized volatility and 3.65 vol ratio indicate extreme price swings despite minimal 7-day movement, pointing to episodic news-driven reactions rather than steady repricing. With only $242 in daily volume against $13.3k open interest and 412 days to expiry, liquidity is thin enough that large positions could face slippage, though the tight 1¢ spread suggests some market maker presence.
Resolution rules
If Steve Hilton finishes in 1st place in the 2026 California Governor primary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (2)
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26JUN02-1ST-SHIL yes 100