Will the brent crude oil close price be above $100.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $100.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in a 46% probability that Brent crude closes above $100.99 on April 30, 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (3094% for Yes, 2245% for No) combined with minimal liquidity ($654 daily volume, $4,750 open interest) suggest this is a thin, speculative contract where pricing may not reflect fundamental oil market expectations.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 46% probability that Brent crude closes above $100.99 on April 30, 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (3094% for Yes, 2245% for No) combined with minimal liquidity ($654 daily volume, $4,750 open interest) suggest this is a thin, speculative contract where pricing may not reflect fundamental oil market expectations. The 7-day downtrend from 43¢ to 39¢ and elevated realized volatility of 780% indicate recent bearish sentiment, though with only 14 days to expiry and a 10¢ spread, the market lacks sufficient depth to confidently distinguish signal from noise.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 100.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T100.99 yes 100