Will the brent crude oil close price be above $102.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $102.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 34% probability that Brent crude will exceed $102.99/barrel by April 30, 2026, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 5,875%—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail risk the market is pricing in.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 34% probability that Brent crude will exceed $102.99/barrel by April 30, 2026, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 5,875%—a red flag suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail risk the market is pricing in. With just $711 in 24-hour volume against $2,519 open interest and a wide 14¢ spread, liquidity is thin and the market may not be efficiently discovering price; the sharp 8¢ decline over seven days (40¢ to 32¢) indicates recent bearish momentum that could reflect either new information or thin-market volatility. At 14 days to expiration with a realized volatility of 829%, this contract is pricing in dramatic oil price swings, making the extreme yield less of an opportunity and more of a compensation for binary event risk.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 102.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T102.99 yes 100