Will the brent crude oil close price be above $82.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $82.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in an 84% probability that Brent crude will close above $82.99 on April 30, 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (539.9% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 84% probability that Brent crude will close above $82.99 on April 30, 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (539.9% for Yes vs. 12,868.7% for No) suggest severe liquidity constraints rather than genuine conviction—the $1,039.92 open interest with only $35 in 24-hour volume indicates this is a thin, illiquid market. The sharp 10-cent price rise over seven days (73¢ to 83¢) combined with elevated realized volatility of 178% and a Cliff Risk Index of 5 signals potential instability, though with 14 days to expiry, the market has time to stabilize or reflect new information at a rate of 1.2 arrivals per hour.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 82.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T82.99 yes 100