Will the brent crude oil close price be above $84.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $84.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in an 88% probability that Brent crude will close above $84.99 on April 30, 2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($20 24h volume, $3,878 open interest) and wide 25¢ spread raise serious concerns about price reliability.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 88% probability that Brent crude will close above $84.99 on April 30, 2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($20 24h volume, $3,878 open interest) and wide 25¢ spread raise serious concerns about price reliability. The astronomical 11,094% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "No" side suggests the market may be severely mispriced, as such extreme yields typically indicate either illiquidity-driven distortion or a fundamental disconnect between the 88¢ price and true market expectations. With only 11 days to expiry and realized volatility at 770%, this contract carries substantial cliff risk and should be treated with caution given the minimal trading activity.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 84.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T84.99 yes 100