Will the brent crude oil close price be above $90.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $90.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in a 72% probability that Brent crude will exceed $90.99/barrel by late April 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (1,245% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 72% probability that Brent crude will exceed $90.99/barrel by late April 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (1,245% for Yes vs. 5,622% for No) suggest significant mispricing or tail risk concerns favoring the No side. With only $196.92 in 24-hour volume against $1,857.37 open interest and a 7-cent spread, liquidity is thin relative to open positions, and the realized volatility of 350% indicates this contract has experienced wild swings despite the neutral regime score. The price has climbed 9 cents over seven days and has just 14 days to expiration, so any near-term oil price movement could trigger sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 90.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T90.99 yes 100