What is the current probability for "Will the brent crude oil close price be above $92.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 59¢ (59% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the brent crude oil close price be above $92.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5141.1% and 3173.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the brent crude oil close price be above $92.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $92.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The 57¢ price implies a 57% probability that Brent crude will exceed $92.99/bbl by April 30, 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (1901% for Yes, 3341% for No) signal severe illiquidity with only $6,821 open interest and $3,891 daily volume.

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59¢

Bid/Ask 44/86¢·Spread 42¢·Vol $370.79·OI $8,447.42·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T92.99

7-day price995 snapshots · 55 regime

81¢44¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

The 57¢ price implies a 57% probability that Brent crude will exceed $92.99/bbl by April 30, 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (1901% for Yes, 3341% for No) signal severe illiquidity with only $6,821 open interest and $3,891 daily volume. The realized volatility of 1289% and vol ratio of 2.18 suggest extreme price swings relative to expected moves, indicating this micro-liquidity market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around a relatively near-term (14-day) expiration with an information arrival rate of 2.8 events per hour.

Resolution rules

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 92.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5141.1%

IY (No) 3173.8%

Adj IY 5141%

CRI 1

RV 1706%

VR 2.20

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5141.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3173.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5141%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1706%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.20	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

42¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:15:45 PM

SF edge 31.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +31¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T92.99 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →