Will the brent crude oil close price be above $98.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $98.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market displays extreme annualized yields (3,367% for Yes, 2,079% for No) despite modest 14-day expiration, suggesting either mispricing or very high uncertainty around Brent's $98.99 strike level.
Analysis
This market displays extreme annualized yields (3,367% for Yes, 2,079% for No) despite modest 14-day expiration, suggesting either mispricing or very high uncertainty around Brent's $98.99 strike level. The realized volatility of 459% is exceptionally elevated relative to the 0.73 vol ratio, indicating the market may be underpricing tail risk given oil's historical price swings. With only $361.48 in 24-hour volume and $1,754.34 open interest, liquidity is thin, making the 48¢ price potentially unstable and vulnerable to informed traders exploiting the 3¢ spread.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 98.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T98.99 yes 100