0 cuts · Will the Fed cut rates
0 cuts is priced at 91¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 91¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will the Fed cut rates.
Price history
91¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
0 cuts
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
0 cuts 91¢
Range
1¢-91¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXEMERCUTS-26-T0
Jun 26, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
91¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the Fed cut rates
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
91 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXEMERCUTS-26-T0
Event family
Will the Fed cut rates.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
0 cuts 91¢
Current share
79%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.577
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.