Will the gold close price be above 4471.99 USD/t.oz on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will the gold close price be above 4471.99 USD/t.oz on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 50,000% risk-adjusted yield.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 50,000% risk-adjusted yield. The 7-cent spread is unusually wide relative to the contract's notional value, and the sharp 54-cent price movement over seven days suggests either thin order books or recent volatility in positioning. With only seven days to expiry and a strike price of $4,471.99/t.oz representing a modest premium to current spot levels, traders should be cautious of cliff risk (index of 19) and the potential for sudden repricing as the resolution date approaches.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 4471.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOLDW-26APR2417-T4471.99 yes 100