Will the gold close price be above 5211.99 USD/t.oz on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the gold close price be above 5211.99 USD/t.oz on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The astronomical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side and 2¢ spread suggest minimal market participation and potential mispricing, particularly given gold's historical volatility rarely justifies such a low probability for a price level just 2% above current spot. With only 7 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 32, this appears to be a thin, speculative contract where the quoted price reflects lack of liquidity rather than genuine market consensus on gold's directional bias.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 5211.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOLDW-26APR2417-T5211.99 yes 100