What is the current probability for "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 31, 2026. 27 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 43137.9% and 41.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketMay 31, 202627 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

3¢

$13.9M volume

$844K liquidity

7% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$187.7M

Best sibling

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April 0¢

Ticker

0x789c947a…92a2

Price history

3¢ current

−2¢

Apr 11, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 3¢

Polymarket

0¢ spread

BidSize

3¢19K

3¢27K

3¢16K

2¢11K

2¢6.9K

2¢204K

2¢18K

2¢11K

AskSize

3¢24K

3¢43K

3¢44K

3¢57K

3¢102K

3¢53K

3¢569

4¢22K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

0x789c947a…92a2

Event family

Iran / Hormuz crisis.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$187.7M

Outcomes