Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27599.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27599.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $111.94 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 69¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $111.94 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 69¢ spread. The 329% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated, though this reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction—the Nasdaq-100 would need to stay above 27,599.99 for over two years, which at current levels (~20,000) represents roughly a 38% rally. The sharp 7-day price decline from 45¢ to 30¢ suggests recent selling pressure, but with minimal trading activity, this contract should be approached cautiously as a speculative position rather than a reliable hedge.
Resolution rules
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 27599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T27599.99 yes 100