Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in April 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in April 2026?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market is pricing in a 97% probability that core CPI will exceed 2.3% year-over-year by April 2026, but the extreme No yield of 24,593% signals severe illiquidity with only $327 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 97% probability that core CPI will exceed 2.3% year-over-year by April 2026, but the extreme No yield of 24,593% signals severe illiquidity with only $327 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The sharp 7-point price climb from 90¢ to 97¢ over a week, combined with a 5¢ spread and 16 cliff risk index, suggests the market may be overextended given that current core CPI sits around 3.2-3.3%, making the 2.3% threshold relatively easy to hit despite potential disinflation over the next 23 days before expiry.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26APR-T2.3 yes 100