Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in May 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in May 2026?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. This market is pricing in a 96% probability that core CPI will exceed 2.3% year-over-year by May 2026, but the extreme 7026.7% implied yield on the No side and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 96% probability that core CPI will exceed 2.3% year-over-year by May 2026, but the extreme 7026.7% implied yield on the No side and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With only $200 open interest, a wide 7¢ spread, and 53 days to expiration, this appears to be a thin, potentially stale market where the price may not reflect true market consensus. The high cliff risk index of 10 combined with the neutral regime score indicates significant uncertainty around the May 2026 CPI print despite the lopsided probability.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.3 yes 100