Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in April 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $32 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the massive 29,693.9% implied yield on Yes contracts. The sharp 50% price decline over seven days (from 10¢ to 5¢) combined with a wide 6¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 19 suggests either informed selling or thin-market volatility rather than genuine probability discovery. With just 23 days to expiry and core CPI currently running around 3.2-3.3% year-over-year, the 5% probability of exceeding 3.0% appears mispriced relative to recent inflation data, though the illiquidity makes this difficult to arbitrage.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade