Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in April 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low 7% probability that core CPI will exceed 3.3% year-over-year by April 2026, despite the astronomical 21,334% implied yield on Yes contracts reflecting the tiny price. With zero 24-hour volume and only $53 open interest across a 4¢ spread, liquidity is critically thin, making the extreme yield figures potentially misleading rather than actionable. The market closes in just 23 days with a high cliff risk index of 13, suggesting sharp repricing is likely once April 2026 CPI data approaches, though current pricing appears to heavily discount inflation persistence given core CPI was running around 3.2-3.4% as of late 2024.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

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