Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in May 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in May 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $593 open interest, making the 17¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $593 open interest, making the 17¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread. The astronomical 3393.6% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or reflects the market's difficulty in pricing such a low-probability event with minimal trading activity. With 53 days to expiry and a sharp 70% price increase over seven days (from 10¢ to 17¢), this appears to be a thinly-traded tail risk bet where the low liquidity may be distorting the probability estimate rather than reflecting genuine market consensus.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T3.3 yes 100