Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in April 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low 8% probability of core CPI exceeding 3.4% year-over-year by April 2026, yet the astronomical 16,466% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns. With only $200 in open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 5¢ spread, the market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust the price discovery, and the 12 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential resolution volatility in the final 25 days. Given that core CPI was running around 3.2-3.3% recently, the 8¢ price may be underestimating tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no obvious directional bias in current market conditions.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.4% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade