Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in May 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in May 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, surging from 8¢ to 18¢, yet maintains virtually no liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $547 open interest, making the extreme 3143% implied yield on the Yes side potentially unreliable.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, surging from 8¢ to 18¢, yet maintains virtually no liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $547 open interest, making the extreme 3143% implied yield on the Yes side potentially unreliable. With core CPI currently running around 3.2-3.3% and 53 days to expiry, the 18¢ price suggests markets view a breach above 3.4% as unlikely, though the thin order book (5¢ spread) and elevated cliff risk index of 5 indicate significant uncertainty near resolution. The sharp recent rally warrants caution—this could reflect genuine inflation concerns or merely thin-market volatility given the illiquid conditions.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.4% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T3.4 yes 100