Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in April?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in April?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 5¢ Yes price implying only 5% probability of unemployment exceeding 4.5%, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an astronomical 54,642%—a red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or a pricing error.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 5¢ Yes price implying only 5% probability of unemployment exceeding 4.5%, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an astronomical 54,642%—a red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or a pricing error. With zero 24-hour volume, just $919 open interest, and a 4¢ spread, the market lacks meaningful liquidity to validate this quote, and the recent price decline from 3¢ to 2¢ indicates weak conviction among the few participants. Given the high cliff risk index (32) and only 22 days to expiry, this appears to be a thin, potentially mispriced market where the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of executing trades rather than genuine market consensus.
Resolution rules
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.5% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXU3-26APR-T4.5 yes 100