What is the current probability for "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 19¢ (19% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 10 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 15917.1% and 875.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The Yes position has surged 110% over seven days to 21¢, yet the extreme 9,466% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction—the $358k open interest concentrated in a thin 1¢ spread indicates this market lacks depth for meaningful position sizing.

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19¢

Bid/Ask 19/20¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $133,696.31·OI $487,038.8·Closes May 1, 2026·10d remaining

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY

7-day price539 snapshots · 129 regime

47¢19¢ current

Apr 86¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The Yes position has surged 110% over seven days to 21¢, yet the extreme 9,466% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction—the $358k open interest concentrated in a thin 1¢ spread indicates this market lacks depth for meaningful position sizing. With 15 days to expiry and a neutral regime despite 1,047% realized volatility, the 1.1 info arrivals per hour suggest ongoing geopolitical developments could rapidly shift probabilities, making this a high-risk venue for anything beyond small speculative bets.

Resolution rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 15917.1%

IY (No) 875.8%

Adj IY 15080%

CRI 4

RV 1553%

VR 1.66

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	15917.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	875.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15080%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1553%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.66	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	18.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	3.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.577

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:35:00 PM

SF edge 54.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (12)

NO +54¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +14¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +45¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +4¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +66¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →