Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 79887.1% and 221.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	79887.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	221.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	39944%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%?

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