Will the US government be shut down for at least 120 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will the US government be shut down for at least 120 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 16¢, implying only a 1-in-6 chance of a 120-day shutdown during this 10-month window, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 797% risk-adjusted yield that reflects the severe tail-risk nature of the bet.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 16¢, implying only a 1-in-6 chance of a 120-day shutdown during this 10-month window, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 797% risk-adjusted yield that reflects the severe tail-risk nature of the bet. With modest liquidity ($20.3k open interest, $6.3k daily volume) and a tight 1¢ spread, the market shows recent downward pressure (17¢ to 15¢ over seven days) despite elevated realized volatility of 2060%, suggesting traders are gradually pricing down shutdown probability as we move closer to the Feb 2026 window. The 6/10 cliff risk index and 5.97 volatility ratio indicate this contract carries meaningful execution risk, making the high yield partially compensation for both tail-event probability and market microstructure challenges.
Resolution rules
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 120 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G120 yes 100