Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the US government be shut down for at least 90 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 63¢ (63% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the US government be shut down for at least 90 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 84.2% and 244.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the US government be shut down for at least 90 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	84.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	244.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	120%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Will the US government be shut down for at least 90 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?

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