Will the US government be shut down for at least 95 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will the US government be shut down for at least 95 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has surged 107% over seven days to 57¢, reflecting elevated political uncertainty around the 2026 fiscal calendar, though the 1¢ spread and $24.7k daily volume suggest moderate liquidity for a niche political contract.
Analysis
The market has surged 107% over seven days to 57¢, reflecting elevated political uncertainty around the 2026 fiscal calendar, though the 1¢ spread and $24.7k daily volume suggest moderate liquidity for a niche political contract. The extreme realized volatility of 1357% and No side yield of 194% indicate sharp disagreement about shutdown probability, with traders pricing a roughly even chance of a 95+ day shutdown despite historical precedent favoring shorter disruptions. With 260 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing genuine tail risk rather than showing signs of mispricing, though the high vol ratio of 7.14 warrants caution about potential mean reversion.
Resolution rules
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 95 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G95 yes 100