Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 86.00 and 86.99 on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 86.00 and 86.99 on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 170% on the No side, suggesting severe illiquidity is distorting the 9¢ price rather than reflecting genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 170% on the No side, suggesting severe illiquidity is distorting the 9¢ price rather than reflecting genuine probability assessment. With only $491.82 in open interest and a 7¢ spread, the market lacks sufficient depth to establish reliable pricing, and the cliff risk index of 32 indicates meaningful settlement uncertainty. WTI crude at exactly $86-$86.99 in April 2026 represents a narrow $1 band that seems underpriced at 9% probability given oil's historical volatility, though the minimal 7-day price stability (flat at 2¢) suggests limited recent conviction from traders.
Resolution rules
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 24, 2026 is between $86.00 and 86.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTIW-26APR24-B86.5 yes 100