Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 89.00 and 89.99 on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 89.00 and 89.99 on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme pricing anomalies with a 4¢ yes price implying only 4% probability despite an absurd 100,000% implied yield on the yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity constraints on Kalshi's platform.
Analysis
This market shows extreme pricing anomalies with a 4¢ yes price implying only 4% probability despite an absurd 100,000% implied yield on the yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity constraints on Kalshi's platform. The $3,553 daily volume against $4,069 open interest indicates dangerously thin liquidity, and the 32 cliff risk index combined with 3,484% realized volatility signals high manipulation risk as the market approaches its April 24, 2026 expiration in just 6 days. The yes price has only moved 1¢ in seven days despite massive volatility metrics, which is inconsistent with normal price discovery and warrants caution on both sides of this bet.
Resolution rules
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 24, 2026 is between $89.00 and 89.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTIW-26APR24-B89.5 yes 100