Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 90.00 and 90.99 on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 90.00 and 90.99 on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9% yes price generating a nonsensical 100,000% implied yield on the affirmative side, while the no side offers only 343.2%, suggesting severe liquidity constraints and potential arbitrage opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9% yes price generating a nonsensical 100,000% implied yield on the affirmative side, while the no side offers only 343.2%, suggesting severe liquidity constraints and potential arbitrage opportunity. With just $7,439 in 24-hour volume and $7,988 open interest across a narrow $0.99 price band expiring in 6 days, the market lacks sufficient depth to trust these odds, especially given the 4,185% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 19 indicating high settlement uncertainty. The recent price movement from 2¢ to 5¢ combined with 1.5 information arrivals per hour suggests active repricing, but the neutral regime and modest vol ratio of 0.75 don't fully explain the extreme yield divergence between outcomes.
Resolution rules
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 24, 2026 is between $90.00 and 90.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTIW-26APR24-B90.5 yes 100