What is the current probability for "Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 34¢ (34% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 10 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8740.4% and 1605.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The Yes position shows an extreme 5347% implied yield with only 15 days to expiration, suggesting the market is pricing in a very low but non-negligible tail risk of Trump mentioning Moscow in the coming weeks.

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34¢

Bid/Ask 29/34¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $538.05·OI $3,656.25·Closes May 1, 2026·10d remaining

KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-MOSC

7-day price873 snapshots · 17 regime

53¢29¢ current

Apr 816¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The Yes position shows an extreme 5347% implied yield with only 15 days to expiration, suggesting the market is pricing in a very low but non-negligible tail risk of Trump mentioning Moscow in the coming weeks. Price has collapsed 47¢ to 32¢ over seven days with realized volatility at 621%, indicating significant recent conviction shift toward No despite thin liquidity ($137 daily volume). The tight 1¢ spread and modest $2.4k open interest suggest this is a niche market where a single Trump statement about Russia or Ukraine could dramatically reprrice the contract.

Resolution rules

If Moscow, or a plural or possessive form of Moscow, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8740.4%

IY (No) 1605.4%

Adj IY 8740%

CRI 2

RV 2434%

VR 1.99

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8740.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1605.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8740%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2434%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.99	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:18:06 PM

Observability lowEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-MOSC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →