What is the current probability for "Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 1 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 1232.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Trump say "Moscow" before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The Yes position shows an extreme 5347% implied yield with only 15 days to expiration, suggesting the market is pricing in a very low but non-negligible tail risk of Trump mentioning Moscow in the coming weeks.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 4/8¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $11,501.97·OI $16,078.67·Closes May 1, 2026·1d remaining

KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-MOSC

7-day price1528 snapshots · 52 regime

53¢4¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

The Yes position shows an extreme 5347% implied yield with only 15 days to expiration, suggesting the market is pricing in a very low but non-negligible tail risk of Trump mentioning Moscow in the coming weeks. Price has collapsed 47¢ to 32¢ over seven days with realized volatility at 621%, indicating significant recent conviction shift toward No despite thin liquidity ($137 daily volume). The tight 1¢ spread and modest $2.4k open interest suggest this is a niche market where a single Trump statement about Russia or Ukraine could dramatically reprrice the contract.

Resolution rules

If Moscow, or a plural or possessive form of Moscow, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 1232.4%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 24

RV 5957%

VR 1.31

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1232.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5957%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.31	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 8:27:54 AM

Observability lowEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 8:23:52 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-MOSC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →