What is the current probability for "Will Trump say "Stimulus" before May 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 1 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump say "Stimulus" before May 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100000.0% and 2226.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump say "Stimulus" before May 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump say "Stimulus" before May 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Trump say "Stimulus" before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 7/9¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $9,229.88·OI $34,057.7·Closes May 1, 2026·1d remaining

KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-STIM

7-day price786 snapshots · 98 regime

25¢7¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

If Stimulus, or a plural or possessive form of Stimulus, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%

IY (No) 2226.3%

Adj IY 71430%

CRI 13

RV 7469%

VR 0.38

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	>100,000%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2226.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	71430%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	7469%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.38	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.29	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 8:27:42 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 8:23:52 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-STIM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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