Will Trump say "Third Term" before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Trump say "Third Term" before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The Yes side is pricing in an extreme 8,922% annualized yield despite only 15 days to expiration, suggesting either deep illiquidity ($4.6k open interest) or genuine skepticism that Trump will spontaneously invoke "Third Term" rhetoric in this narrow window.
Analysis
The Yes side is pricing in an extreme 8,922% annualized yield despite only 15 days to expiration, suggesting either deep illiquidity ($4.6k open interest) or genuine skepticism that Trump will spontaneously invoke "Third Term" rhetoric in this narrow window. Price has declined 5 cents over seven days (27¢ to 22¢) while maintaining a tight 3¢ spread, indicating modest but consistent selling pressure without panic, though the 1,089% realized volatility flags this as a highly speculative micro-market vulnerable to single statements or news events.
Resolution rules
If Third Term, or a plural or possessive form of Third Term, is stated by Donald Trump before May 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26MAY01-THIR yes 100