Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 2.8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 2.8%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a pricing anomaly that suggests no active trading—the 0¢ price implies near-zero probability of UK inflation exceeding 2.8% YoY in March 2026, yet the implied yield on the "No" side reaches an implausible 81,173%, indicating the market is essentially broken.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a pricing anomaly that suggests no active trading—the 0¢ price implies near-zero probability of UK inflation exceeding 2.8% YoY in March 2026, yet the implied yield on the "No" side reaches an implausible 81,173%, indicating the market is essentially broken. With only 5 days to expiry and an 8¢ spread, this appears to be a dead or abandoned contract that hasn't attracted meaningful participation, making any price signal unreliable for forecasting actual inflation expectations.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 2.8 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | >100,000% |
| CRI | 12 |
| RV | 344% |
| VR | 0.39 |
| IAR | 2.9/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T2.8 yes 100