Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market is essentially dead with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 92¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extreme 1142% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market is essentially dead with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 92¢ price potentially unreliable despite the extreme 1142% implied yield on the Yes side. The massive 14¢ spread and astronomical 43,101% implied yield on the No side suggest severe illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction, with the cliff risk index of 6 indicating potential resolution complications. With just 5 days until expiry and the market having drifted down 3¢ over the past week, this appears to be a ghost market unlikely to attract meaningful trading before the April 22 close.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 3 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | >100,000% |
| CRI | 8 |
| RV | 1892% |
| VR | 1.13 |
| IAR | 0.7/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T3 yes 100