Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 4.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 4.1%?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing April 22, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the theoretical 100,000% yield on Yes contracts.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the theoretical 100,000% yield on Yes contracts. The 8¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the contract value, and with just 4 days until expiry and resolution imminent, the cliff risk index of 19 suggests significant uncertainty about the final outcome. The sharp price movement from 2¢ to 5¢ over seven days may reflect late information or thin-market volatility rather than genuine probability shifts, warranting caution before treating this as a meaningful prediction.
Resolution rules
If UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 is above 4.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (6)▼ Full indicator table (6)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | >100,000% |
| CRI | 19 |
| RV | 33154% |
| VR | 0.85 |
| IAR | 2.0/h |
| Overround | 6.4% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKCPIYOY-26APR22-T4.1 yes 100