Will USD/IRR for April 2026 be above 1,300,000 ?

The market is pricing in an 88% probability of USD/IRR exceeding 1,300,000 by April 2026, reflecting expectations of continued Iranian currency depreciation, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (497.6% for Yes vs. 18,776.8% for No) suggest severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the microscopic $54 daily volume and $5,417 open interest. The sharp 28-cent rally over seven days combined with a 476% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (6) indicates recent momentum-driven buying, but with only 12 days to expiry and a 5-cent spread, the market may be overweighting near-term technical moves rather than fundamental currency dynamics.

Resolution rules

If USD/IRR exchange rate published on April 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET is above 1,300,000 per 1 USD, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade