Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in just a 27% win probability for OH-15, reflecting the district's Republican lean, though the 494.9% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful underpricing if Democrats outperform expectations. Liquidity is thin at only $70 in 24-hour volume against $12.5M open interest, creating potential execution challenges and a 1¢ spread that masks wider practical slippage. The market has drifted up 2 cents over seven days and still has 199 days to expiration, leaving substantial time for polling shifts or demographic changes to move the price, though the neutral regime score indicates no strong directional momentum currently.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade