Will William Compton be the Democratic nominee for KY-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will William Compton be the Democratic nominee for KY-02?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 2¢ spread and $711 open interest, suggesting very limited trader interest in Compton's nomination prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a 2¢ spread and $711 open interest, suggesting very limited trader interest in Compton's nomination prospects. The 137% implied yield on the Yes side appears artificially inflated given the thin order book and 533% realized volatility, indicating this price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather sparse positioning. With 566 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, the market lacks clear directional conviction, though the recent 1¢ price decline from 33¢ suggests modest bearish pressure on Compton's nomination chances.
Resolution rules
If William Compton wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 KY-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXKYPRIMARY-02D26-WCOM yes 100