2025-26 Basketball Champions League
Leader sits at 53% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: AEK BC
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
Winner: Rytas Vilnius
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 24, 2026
15 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2025-26 Basketball Champions League: Winner
Analysis
The 31% probability reflects the combined odds that a specific team will win the 2025-26 Basketball Champions League based on current market positions. However, the contract listings show significant confusion: the top contract references UEFA's soccer competition (Atletico Madrid at 12¢), while subsequent contracts concern NBA basketball conferences rather than the European basketball championship. This mixing of sports creates ambiguity about what event is actually being priced. If the question intends the FIBA Basketball Champions League, European league performance through March-April 2026 will determine which teams advance to playoffs, with the championship final scheduled for May 2026. The 7-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi suggests traders disagree on fundamental probabilities, possibly reflecting different contract specifications or data interpretation.
- ›Contract specification mismatch: top listings reference soccer (UEFA Champions League) and NBA basketball rather than a unified Basketball Champions League, creating ambiguity about the actual underlying event
- ›Liquidity concentration: highest volume ($513k) is on a soccer contract, suggesting possible data aggregation error or mislabeling of the probability topic
- ›Venue gap of 7 percentage points indicates traders on different platforms assess probabilities differently, potentially due to unclear or conflicting contract terms
- ›Remaining season timeline: if pricing a European basketball championship with May 2026 finals, approximately 5-6 weeks remain for team performance to shift odds
- ›No dominant single contract: volume is dispersed across multiple contracts with inconsistent sports references, suggesting market confusion about the underlying event being predicted
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (53% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.