Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026
Leader sits at 85% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 2027
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
78¢
Before Dec 2026
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
238 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jan 2027?: Before Jan 2027
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY-27JAN
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Dec 2026?: Before Dec 2026
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY-26DEC
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Nov 2026?: Before Nov 2026
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY-26NOV
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Sep 2026?: Before Sep 2026
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY-26SEP
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jul 2026?: Before Jul 2026
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY-26JUL
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jun 2026?: Before Jun 2026
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY-26JUN
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Oct 2026?: Before Oct 2026
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY-26OCT
Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026?: Before Aug 2026
KXCABLEAVE-26MAY-26AUG
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 20 h ago.