2nd largest company end of May
Leader sits at 94% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Alphabet
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Apple
Spread
90pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$31K
liquid
Closes
May 31, 2026
4 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2nd largest company end of May
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Alphabet will be the second-largest publicly traded company by market capitalization at the end of May 2026. Market participants assign Alphabet an 87% chance of holding this position, with Apple at 3% and NVIDIA at 10%. The ranking depends primarily on relative stock price movements and market sentiment around each company's fundamentals. Tech valuations have historically been volatile, and shifts in investor preference between search/advertising (Alphabet), consumer devices (Apple), and AI chips (NVIDIA) could alter rankings. The outcome resolves based on market capitalization data published at month-end, making this sensitive to any major corporate announcements, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts affecting sector rotation between now and May 31, 2026.
- ›Alphabet currently trades at approximately $180+ billion ahead of Apple and NVIDIA in market cap; Apple would need significant outperformance to overtake it by month-end
- ›NVIDIA's AI momentum could drive rapid valuation changes; any major contract wins or guidance beats would directly pressure Alphabet's ranking
- ›Aggregate volume across three contracts remains relatively modest ($7,200 in 24h volume), suggesting limited institutional participation and potential price sensitivity to new information
- ›Apple faces specific risks including iPhone sales data and services growth narrative; any disappointing earnings would reinforce current market positioning
- ›Macroeconomic factors—particularly interest rate expectations and AI investment cycles—could trigger sector-wide reallocation affecting all three companies simultaneously
What moved the line
- May 22Apple↑12pp6→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Alphabet↑10pp86→96¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Apple↓9pp13→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Alphabet↓7pp92→85¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Alphabet↓7pp85→78¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (94% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.