3rd richest person on December 31
Leader sits at 36% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Elon Musk
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Sergey Brin
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
3rd richest person on December 31
3rd richest person on December 31?: Jensen Huang
0x7205ce…b840
3rd richest person on December 31?: Sergey Brin
0x88cfce…b23f
3rd richest person on December 31?: Bernard Arnault
0xcc1e46…59b1
3rd richest person on December 31?: Larry Ellison
0xb44d40…050c
3rd richest person on December 31?: Larry Page
0xd10117…f238
3rd richest person on December 31?: Warren Buffett
0x93db85…1161
3rd richest person on December 31?: Jeff Bezos
0x6f87a9…feba
3rd richest person on December 31?: Mark Zuckerberg
0x3e4b89…a400
3rd richest person on December 31?: Elon Musk
0xb188fc…3c28
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Jeff Bezos will rank as the third-wealthiest person globally on December 31, 2026. The 38% probability sits between runner-up Sergey Brin at 35% and Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang each at 28%, indicating meaningful uncertainty about wealth rankings over the next eight months. Wealth positions depend primarily on stock market movements—particularly Amazon's share price for Bezos and other major holdings for competitors—as well as asset sales or acquisitions by these individuals. The final ranking will be determined by net worth calculations published by wealth tracking services on or near year-end 2026. Key drivers include whether Bezos continues Amazon shareholding patterns, whether tech stock valuations shift dramatically, and whether any billionaire executes major capital transactions affecting their portfolio composition.
- ›Amazon stock performance and Bezos's holdings changes between now and December 31, 2026
- ›Tesla, xAI, and Elon Musk's total assets relative to other candidates, as he currently leads richest-person forecasts at 89%
- ›Aggregate tech sector valuation shifts, which would affect Zuckerberg (Meta), Huang (Nvidia), and Brin holdings simultaneously
- ›Any major asset sales, acquisitions, or wealth transfers by Bezos or competing billionaires that would alter net worth calculations
- ›Methodology used by wealth tracking services in December 2026 for valuing private holdings and illiquid assets
What moved the line
- May 7Larry Ellison↓17pp37→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Mark Zuckerberg↓14pp26→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Bernard Arnault↓13pp28→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Elon Musk↑11pp19→30¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Larry Ellison↑11pp20→31¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.